November 2026 Macro Catalyst Outlook

Tue 3, 10:00 JOLTS (September) August openings 7.1 million on a 4.3 percent rate, quits 1.9 percent, layoffs 1.6 million Openings below 7.0 million with layoffs rising would say the 29,000 September payroll print was the start of something, not noise; that is the only data point before Friday that can pull December pricing lower Tue 3, polls close from 7:00 pm US midterm elections: 35 Senate seats, all 435 House seats, 36 governorships Polymarket priced a Democratic Senate at about 69 percent and a Democratic House at about 94 percent on 30 October. Senate cloture on the CLARITY Act market-structure bill failed 49 to 50 on 15 September and has not been rescheduled A Republican hold of the Senate is the surprise. For crypto the result decides whether market-structure legislation gets a second attempt in 2027 and who chairs the committees that would write it; for the long end it decides whether the deficit outlook moves, which is the refunding question in a different form. It is a 2027 catalyst, not a Wednesday-morning price event Tue 3, 11:30 pm Mon ET (2:30 pm Sydney) Reserve Bank of Australia decision 4.60 percent after four increases this year; money markets price about 79 percent odds of a fifth, to 4.85 percent, after third-quarter trimmed mean inflation of 1.0 percent on the quarter A hold is the surprise. Low direct relevance, but a hike adds to the picture of central banks still tightening into year end, which keeps the dollar bid Wed 4, 8:15 ADP private payrolls (October) Preview for Friday Only matters if it lands far from Friday’s consensus of plus 55,000 and moves the two-year yield before the official print Wed 4, 8:30 Treasury quarterly refunding statement August guidance kept nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes unchanged “for at least the next several quarters”; the enlarged long-end buybacks, up to $6 billion an operation in the 10 to 20 and 20 to 30 year sectors, ran only to 4 November and the Treasury said it would give more detail at this refunding Dropping the “several quarters” language, or any coupon size increase, is the hawkish surprise for the long end: the 10-year was 5.13 percent on 21 October and 4.98 on 29 October, and a move back above 5.13 is the one rates outcome that has reliably hurt bitcoin this year. A buyback programme extended or enlarged is the mild upside surprise Wed 4, 8:30 International trade (September) August deficit $105.6 billion, a record, on $420.8 billion of imports; the third-quarter GDP report said exports fell, led by petroleum products, and imports rose A second deficit above $100 billion keeps net exports a drag on fourth-quarter growth, which the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow will show the same week; it is a dollar story, not a crypto story Wed 4, 10:00 ISM Services PMI (October) 54.9 in September; consensus 54.7. S&P Global’s flash services index fell to 57.9 from 58.8 Services prices paid is the read on whether fuel is passing into the rest of the economy; a rise would support the dissenters’ case Thu 5, 7:00 Bank of England decision and Monetary Policy Report A 25 basis point increase is expected, the first of a new cycle; the vote split and the guidance on what follows are the live parts A hold is the surprise. A hawkish Bank of England alongside a Fed on hold weakens the dollar at the margin, which is mildly supportive, but the bigger read-through is that the global cycle is tightening, not easing, into 2027 Thu 5, 7:30 Challenger job cuts (October) Announced layoffs are the leading edge of any labour-market turn A jump would front-run Friday; not a mover on its own Thu 5, 8:30 Initial jobless claims 194,000 in the week to 24 October, four-week average 196,750, continuing claims 1.70 million; claims have not risen since the September reference week A print above 230,000 would be the first crack in the one series that has given the hawks cover all year; below 210,000 it is not a market event Fri 6, 8:30 Employment Situation (October) September payrolls plus 29,000, unemployment 4.2 percent (4.175 unrounded), average hourly earnings plus 0.1 percent on the month and 3.0 percent on the year, participation 61.8 percent; July and August revised down a combined 60,000. Consensus for October: plus 55,000, unemployment 4.2 percent, earnings plus 0.3 percent This is the week’s catalyst. Payrolls at or above 55,000 with unemployment at 4.2 or lower keeps December live and gives bitcoin no relief from rates. A negative print, or unemployment at 4.4 percent or higher, is the dovish surprise that pulls December pricing below 50 percent; it would also be the first print since March to break the 4.1 to 4.3 range the unemployment rate has held Fri 6, 10:00 University of Michigan sentiment, preliminary November October final 48.0; one-year inflation expectations 4.7 percent, long-run 3.5 percent Long-run expectations above 3.5 percent are the number the hawks quote; a fall back toward 3.0 would be the dovish surprise Weekly EIA retail diesel (Mon), petroleum status (Wed), Freddie Mac mortgage survey (Thu) Diesel $6.352 a gallon on 26 October, up $0.076 on the week and $2.634 on the year; 30-year mortgage 7.24 percent on 29 October, down from 7.32 Diesel back above $6.40 keeps the cost-push alive into winter heating season; mortgage rates falling for a third week would be the first easing of credit the household sector has had since September