| Tue 3, 10:00 |
JOLTS (September) |
August openings 7.1 million on a 4.3 percent rate, quits 1.9 percent, layoffs 1.6 million |
Openings below 7.0 million with layoffs rising would say the 29,000 September payroll print was the start of something, not noise; that is the only data point before Friday that can pull December pricing lower |
| Tue 3, polls close from 7:00 pm |
US midterm elections: 35 Senate seats, all 435 House seats, 36 governorships |
Polymarket priced a Democratic Senate at about 69 percent and a Democratic House at about 94 percent on 30 October. Senate cloture on the CLARITY Act market-structure bill failed 49 to 50 on 15 September and has not been rescheduled |
A Republican hold of the Senate is the surprise. For crypto the result decides whether market-structure legislation gets a second attempt in 2027 and who chairs the committees that would write it; for the long end it decides whether the deficit outlook moves, which is the refunding question in a different form. It is a 2027 catalyst, not a Wednesday-morning price event |
| Tue 3, 11:30 pm Mon ET (2:30 pm Sydney) |
Reserve Bank of Australia decision |
4.60 percent after four increases this year; money markets price about 79 percent odds of a fifth, to 4.85 percent, after third-quarter trimmed mean inflation of 1.0 percent on the quarter |
A hold is the surprise. Low direct relevance, but a hike adds to the picture of central banks still tightening into year end, which keeps the dollar bid |
| Wed 4, 8:15 |
ADP private payrolls (October) |
Preview for Friday |
Only matters if it lands far from Friday’s consensus of plus 55,000 and moves the two-year yield before the official print |
| Wed 4, 8:30 |
Treasury quarterly refunding statement |
August guidance kept nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes unchanged “for at least the next several quarters”; the enlarged long-end buybacks, up to $6 billion an operation in the 10 to 20 and 20 to 30 year sectors, ran only to 4 November and the Treasury said it would give more detail at this refunding |
Dropping the “several quarters” language, or any coupon size increase, is the hawkish surprise for the long end: the 10-year was 5.13 percent on 21 October and 4.98 on 29 October, and a move back above 5.13 is the one rates outcome that has reliably hurt bitcoin this year. A buyback programme extended or enlarged is the mild upside surprise |
| Wed 4, 8:30 |
International trade (September) |
August deficit $105.6 billion, a record, on $420.8 billion of imports; the third-quarter GDP report said exports fell, led by petroleum products, and imports rose |
A second deficit above $100 billion keeps net exports a drag on fourth-quarter growth, which the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow will show the same week; it is a dollar story, not a crypto story |
| Wed 4, 10:00 |
ISM Services PMI (October) |
54.9 in September; consensus 54.7. S&P Global’s flash services index fell to 57.9 from 58.8 |
Services prices paid is the read on whether fuel is passing into the rest of the economy; a rise would support the dissenters’ case |
| Thu 5, 7:00 |
Bank of England decision and Monetary Policy Report |
A 25 basis point increase is expected, the first of a new cycle; the vote split and the guidance on what follows are the live parts |
A hold is the surprise. A hawkish Bank of England alongside a Fed on hold weakens the dollar at the margin, which is mildly supportive, but the bigger read-through is that the global cycle is tightening, not easing, into 2027 |
| Thu 5, 7:30 |
Challenger job cuts (October) |
Announced layoffs are the leading edge of any labour-market turn |
A jump would front-run Friday; not a mover on its own |
| Thu 5, 8:30 |
Initial jobless claims |
194,000 in the week to 24 October, four-week average 196,750, continuing claims 1.70 million; claims have not risen since the September reference week |
A print above 230,000 would be the first crack in the one series that has given the hawks cover all year; below 210,000 it is not a market event |
| Fri 6, 8:30 |
Employment Situation (October) |
September payrolls plus 29,000, unemployment 4.2 percent (4.175 unrounded), average hourly earnings plus 0.1 percent on the month and 3.0 percent on the year, participation 61.8 percent; July and August revised down a combined 60,000. Consensus for October: plus 55,000, unemployment 4.2 percent, earnings plus 0.3 percent |
This is the week’s catalyst. Payrolls at or above 55,000 with unemployment at 4.2 or lower keeps December live and gives bitcoin no relief from rates. A negative print, or unemployment at 4.4 percent or higher, is the dovish surprise that pulls December pricing below 50 percent; it would also be the first print since March to break the 4.1 to 4.3 range the unemployment rate has held |
| Fri 6, 10:00 |
University of Michigan sentiment, preliminary November |
October final 48.0; one-year inflation expectations 4.7 percent, long-run 3.5 percent |
Long-run expectations above 3.5 percent are the number the hawks quote; a fall back toward 3.0 would be the dovish surprise |
| Weekly |
EIA retail diesel (Mon), petroleum status (Wed), Freddie Mac mortgage survey (Thu) |
Diesel $6.352 a gallon on 26 October, up $0.076 on the week and $2.634 on the year; 30-year mortgage 7.24 percent on 29 October, down from 7.32 |
Diesel back above $6.40 keeps the cost-push alive into winter heating season; mortgage rates falling for a third week would be the first easing of credit the household sector has had since September |
