Mow is not the first to argue that bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle has changed. After bitcoin climbed to a then-all-time high before the April 2024 halving, several analysts suggested growing institutional demand following the launch of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs could alter the pattern that has historically followed each halving. Others, however, argued it was too early to conclude the cycle had changed.
$55,000 more likely
Not everyone agrees. Several analysts have recently argued that bitcoin is either close to a market bottom or still has further to fall, although they rely on different indicators and models.
CoinDesk market analyst Omkar Godbole recently wrote that if you were “wondering just how much lower bitcoin is likely to drop, the answer, at least according to one historically accurate contrarian indicator, is not much.”
That indicator is based on bitcoin’s 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages. The 50-week average, representing roughly one year, is very close to dropping below the 100-week line, forming what analysts call a “bear cross.” Historically, similar signals coincided with market bottoms, leading some analysts to see the pattern as bullish.
More recently, Markus Thielen, the founder of 10x Research, said he believes the bottom is more likely at $55,000 and not until somewhere between August and October. Arthur Hayes, the BitMex co-founder, took a more bearish position, saying bitcoin would bottom at around $40,000 within the next six months.
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