Bitcoin Weakest October Looms as US Spot Demand Softens

Bitcoin weakest October in six years is in view. Prices sit below September’s close. Soft US spot demand has added pressure. CryptoQuant says Coinbase Premium stayed negative all month. The firm’s Bull Score Index also fell from 90 to 60. That signals cooler market conditions. Traders now watch the Federal Reserve for the next cue in risk assets. That is a live stake for Bitcoin news readers.

Bitcoin Weakest October Extends Monthly Losses

Bitcoin traded near $80,800 on Wednesday. It closed September around $83,567. Market prints leave BTC down about 4% this month, per CoinCodex Bitcoin pricing. October has often been a strong month for Bitcoin. On-chain figures show an average October gain of 18.1% since 2020. Bitcoin lost 3.8% in October 2025. Another down month would extend that streak. It would also mark the weakest October since 2020.

Per CryptoQuant’s October post, price weakness has lined up with limited buying. Demand has struggled to absorb selling. So the tape stays open to more swings while traders wait on the Fed.

Negative Coinbase Premium Signals Soft US Demand

CryptoQuant said Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium stayed negative through October. The gauge compares Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase with prices on offshore exchanges, including Binance. A negative reading means Bitcoin trades at a discount on Coinbase versus the comparison market.

According to a CryptoQuant Coinbase Premium analysis, the premium hit about -0.146. That is its lowest reading since late June. The October average stood at -0.093. That is about three times the September average in size.

Bull Score Falls as Market Conditions Cool

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index fell from 90 to 60. That is a sharp change in the firm’s read on market conditions. The index blends ten gauges to judge Bitcoin’s broader regime.

A reading of 60 does not, by itself, confirm a bear market. CryptoQuant said six of the ten gauges stayed bullish. A move below 50 would mark a clearer shift in that class.

Short-term holders have also seen their profit cushion shrink. CryptoQuant said Bitcoin traded about 8.1% above the realized price for coins held one to three months on October 26. That was down from 33.4% on September 22. Thinner unrealized gains can leave those holders more sensitive to further declines.

Fed Decision Puts Macro Conditions in Focus

The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting wraps on the Federal Reserve’s October calendar. A policy statement and press conference sit on the schedule. Traders still read the decision and policymakers’ comments for clues on rates and financial conditions.

A policy tone that looks open to risk-taking could lift mood. A tougher outlook could add pressure. But neither path locks in a Bitcoin price move. For now, Bitcoin faces a down month, soft relative US spot demand, and a lower Bull Score. Whether those facts hold after the Fed call may decide if October closes with another loss or a late rebound.