Bitcoin faces third liquidation risk as ETF outflows slow by 66%

Bitcoin has drawn a warning of a third October liquidation wave from Bitfinex analysts after futures positions grew despite falling prices, and U.S. spot ETFs posted another $228.4 million in weekly outflows.

Bitfinex Alpha analysts identified $79,821 as a potential trigger for forced selling in commentary shared with the publication, while estimating that a recovery above $84,400 would put the average Bitcoin ETF investor back in profit.

Bitcoin leverage rebuilds near Bitfinex’s $79,821 trigger

In its market assessment, Bitfinex said traders had rebuilt leveraged exposure without the sustained spot buying its analysts consider necessary for a healthy recovery. The firm reported that futures open interest rose 4.3% between Oct. 12 and 15 even as Bitcoin declined.

“Short positions were squeezed last week when BTC rose, and were subsequently replaced by leveraged longs paying annualised funding rates of six to nine percent, recreating conditions similar to those preceding both October flushes.”

The analysts warned that positions left open during the decline could supply the fuel for another liquidation wave. Their downside scenario centers on a break below $79,821, followed by selling within an accumulation band spanning $77,600–$80,400.

Bitfinex expects $81,300 to sit near the middle of the weekly trading range, with its bearish scenario carrying a higher probability than a sustained recovery. The firm cited a 0.78 correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100 over 20 days and warned that another technology-stock decline could pressure BTC.

Earlier price action brought Bitcoin close to the proposed trigger. An Oct. 14 market update recorded BTC falling below $82,000 after U.S. inflation exceeded forecasts, with the session’s high above $84,100 giving way to trading near $81,900.

ETF withdrawals ease without returning to inflows

Farside Investors’ data show Bitcoin ETFs lost $228.4 million during Oct. 12–16, compared with $678.9 million during Oct. 5–9. Calculated from those totals, weekly net withdrawals fell 66.4%.

Across the latest five sessions, Tuesday’s $175.7 million inflow and Thursday’s $5.1 million inflow failed to offset withdrawals on the other three days. Wednesday accounted for the largest loss at $261.4 million.

As crypto.news previously reported, the same week brought $320.1 million in withdrawals from Ethereum ETFs. Combined Bitcoin and Ethereum withdrawals reached $548.5 million, with Ether funds losing more despite Bitcoin’s larger market size.

Jeff Ko, chief analyst at ViaBTC, viewed the smaller Bitcoin outflow as a possible sign that selling pressure was easing. He described BTC recovering toward $82,000–$83,000 after briefly slipping below $80,000, while remaining cautious about Ethereum.

Bitfinex’s demand indicators offered less reassurance. Its analysts estimated net 30-day apparent demand at approximately negative 50,000 BTC, meaning estimated demand remained below available supply over that period.

Within the same assessment, newer whale holders accounted for 33% of total whale realized capitalization, up from 18% at the start of 2026. Bitfinex defined that group as large holders whose coins were held for fewer than 155 days and placed their average cost basis near $77,000.

Analysts separate Bitcoin resilience from renewed conviction

DWF Labs described Bitcoin’s relative performance against technology stocks as resilience without renewed appetite for risk. Its Eyes on the Market briefing put Bitcoin’s weekly decline at 2.47%, against a 4.43% drop in the Nasdaq.

Despite that relative strength, DWF said Bitcoin-denominated open interest averaged its lowest monthly level of the year, while implied volatility stayed elevated after the latest inflation data. Its monthly measure differs from Bitfinex’s reported change over Oct. 12–15.

Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, attributed Bitcoin’s difficulty breaking out to weaker buying financed through leverage and debt. In his assessment, existing holders have shown little urgency to sell, but new long-term allocations have not supplied enough demand for a sustained advance.

“Existing holders show no strong urge for concentrated sell-offs, but the incremental buying demand previously driven by leverage and financing expansion is weakening, while new long-term allocation demand is not yet sufficient to drive a sustained breakout.”

Sun expects range-bound trading until financial conditions improve. He said a recovery in ETF buying would require lower real interest rates and financing costs, alongside larger allocations from bank wealth platforms, investment advisers and long-term asset managers.

Fed uncertainty and index changes add separate pressures

Looking toward the next policy decision, Sun considered an October pause followed by a December rate hike more likely than consecutive hikes. He attributed part of the inflation rebound to energy and supply constraints, while warning that repeated tightening could deepen pressure on a cooling labor market.

Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at BTSE, said uncertainty over the Fed’s next move could drive volatility. He was watching ETF flows for evidence of institutional positioning ahead of the meeting.

DWF identified potential MSCI exclusions as a separate risk for digital asset treasury companies. The index provider’s adopted rules put Strategy and Metaplanet at risk of removal, although their final treatment remains pending.

MSCI’s Oct. 15 announcement schedules the final affected-company list for Nov. 11, with changes taking effect after the Nov. 30 close. The announcement says the November review will end interim restrictions applied to companies whose digital assets represented at least 50% of total assets.