Standard Chartered has sharply revised its Bitcoin price outlook, slashing its 2026 forecast from $300,000 to $150,000. While the downgrade is significant, the British banking giant continues to see strong long-term upside for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
Despite the downward revision, the new target still implies substantial upside from current price levels. Analysts emphasized that Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend remains intact, even if the expected pace of appreciation has slowed.
Long-Term Targets Also Pushed Back
Standard Chartered also adjusted its longer-term projections. The bank now expects Bitcoin to reach $500,000 by 2030, rather than 2028 as previously forecast.
“The timeline has shifted, but the direction has not,” said Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, in a note to clients.
Kendrick cited changes in Bitcoin ETF dynamics and valuation metrics as key reasons for the downgrade. He also lowered expectations for demand from corporate treasuries.
“We now believe that almost all future price appreciation in Bitcoin will come from a single source: ETF inflows,” Kendrick wrote. “That is why we are reducing our year-end price targets.”
This shift places growing emphasis on institutional capital flows rather than corporate balance-sheet adoption as the main driver of Bitcoin’s price.
Structural Bull Case Remains Intact
Despite the softer near-term outlook, Standard Chartered remains structurally bullish. The bank argues that most institutional investors are still significantly under-allocated to Bitcoin based on portfolio optimization models.
“Our portfolio analysis shows that global asset managers continue to hold too little Bitcoin,” Kendrick noted. While investment committee decisions can take multiple quarters, these adjustments are expected to create persistent long-term buying pressure.
ETFs Now Dominate Bitcoin Demand
The growing role of spot Bitcoin ETFs has fundamentally changed Bitcoin’s market structure. Since their approval in the United States, trading activity has increasingly been driven by asset managers, pension funds, and hedge funds rather than retail speculators.
This institutionalization has made Bitcoin more stable—but it has also reduced the likelihood of the explosive parabolic rallies seen in earlier crypto cycles. As a result, macroeconomic conditions and capital flows now play a far more decisive role in determining Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
In short, Standard Chartered believes Bitcoin’s future remains bright—but the path forward is now expected to be steadier, more institution-driven, and less euphoric than in previous bull markets.
