By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin has churned between $86,000 and $88,000 over the past 24 hours, with Tuesday’s U.S. jobs data failing to inject meaningful volatility. The price sits near a major technical level which, if broken, could bring more pain.
The number of BTC/USD longs (bullish bets) on Bitfinex continues to climb, reaching 72,184 at press time, the highest since February 2024. It may sound counterintuitive, but rising longs have historically turned out to be contrarian indicators, accompanying prolonged downtrends.
Adding to the gloom, the 11 U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs bled $227 million on Tuesday following Monday’s $357.69 million outflow. So, in two days, the ETFs have lost over $584 million. That’s more than double last week’s net inflow of $286.60 million, according to SoSoValue. Clearly, institutional appetite for BTC has weakened, leaving the market in a fragile state.
The lack of a bullish response to Tuesday’s spike in the U.S. jobless rate to its highest level since April 2021, a figure that supports Fed rate-cut bets, also points to market exhaustion.
“For crypto, the lack of reaction is telling. Markets appear more focused on internal liquidity and positioning than macro releases,” said Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN. “Until macro data meaningfully shifts rate expectations or liquidity conditions, price action is likely to remain range-bound and reactive rather than directional.”
Speaking of positioning, options market data point to expectations for a broad range trade between $85,000 and $100,000 in the near term.
In the wider crypto market, there are some gainers like the Cardano-based token, which has gained 9% in 24 hours. SKY and XMR have added 4% each, while the rest of the top 100 tokens are in the red. The CoinDesk 20 and CoinDesk 80 indices are both down over the period.
Shares in crypto exchange HashKey fell 5% early Wednesday following their debut in Hong Kong.
In traditional markets, the dollar index has recovered from 2.5-month lows to above 98.00, with the 10-year Treasury yield holding steady above 4.10%. The Chinese yuan remains bid at two-month highs, offering policymakers room to provide stimulus to the slowing economy. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Crypto
- Macro
- Dec. 17: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller speech (“Economic Outlook”). Watch live.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Governance votes & calls
- SSV Network is voting to streamline committee operations (DIP-47) and cap the ETH/SSV fee ratio at 700 (DIP-49). Voting ends Dec. 17.
- Dec. 17: VeChain, Plume, and Aleo to discuss growing institutional momentum in RWAfi.
- Dec. 17: Venus Protocol, Solv Protocol, BounceBit, BNB Chain and Lista DAO to discuss BNB Chain’s New Chapter in 2026 and Beyond
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
Market Movements
- BTC is down 1.51% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $86,436.95 (24hrs: +1.14%)
- ETH is down 0.89% at $2,924.45 (24hrs: -1.17%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 1.45% at 2,702.96 (24hrs: -0.88%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bp at 2.85%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0098% (10.7222% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.41% at 98.55
- Gold futures are up 0.24% at $4,342.80
- Silver futures are up 4.13% at $65.94
- Nikkei 225 closed up 0.26% at 49,512.28
- Hang Seng closed up 0.92% at 25,468.78
- FTSE is up 1.68% at 9,847.03
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.2% at 5,729.49
- DJIA closed on Tuesday down 0.62% at 48,114.26
- S&P 500 closed down 0.24% at 6,800.26
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.23% at 23,111.46
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.7% at 31,263.93
- S&P 40 Latin America closed down 2.46% at 3,100.62
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 2.1 bps at 4.17%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.34% at 6,879.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.38% at 25,476.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.21% at 48,583.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.34% (-0.11%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03373 (0.03%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,068 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $36.97
- Total fees: 2.72 BTC / $236,707
- CME Futures Open Interest: 122,645 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 20 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 5.82%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows daily changes in the dominance of USDT, the biggest stablecoin, a measure of the token’s share of the total crypto market.
- The dominance rate has surpassed the three-year descending trendline, confirming a bullish breakout.
- It means that tether could grab more market share in coming weeks, a scenario typically seen during bear markets.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $252.61 (+0.87%), unchanged in pre-market
- Circle (CRCL): closed at $83 (+9.99%), -0.12% at $82.90
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.31 (-0.94%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $42.96 (+1.25%), -0.33% at $42.82
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $10.69 (-0.09%), -0.47% at $10.64
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.47 (-1.75%), -0.3% at $13.43
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.73 (-3.6%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.86 (-0.46%), unchanged in pre-market
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $38.36 (+1.13%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $14.43 (+6.42%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $167.50 (+3.34%), -0.87% at $166.05
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $17.40 (+8.55%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.71 (+2.1%), -0.21% at $9.69
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.05 (+0.49%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.52 (-0.65%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$277.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $57.25 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.31 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$224.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12.66 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.23 million
Source: Farside Investors
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